KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

38%

29%

15%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.40u · EPS −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	41.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.9%	18.4%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	44.4%	47.9%	5.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	31.7%	55.8%	12.8%	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	24.5%	48.5%	22.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	18.4%	33.7%	13.6%	—	8.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	32.2%	33.0%	20.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	11.9%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	34.6%	8.0%	17.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	16.6%	11.6%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	20.3%	11.0%	22.3%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	19.6%	8.8%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	16.5%	9.0%	11.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	11.4%	8.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	12.3%	9.4%	11.8%	0.0%	3.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	13.2%	8.8%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.7%	8.5%	6.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	10.2%	6.7%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.0%	9.0%	5.4%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.2%	6.6%	7.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.6%	9.5%	8.9%	1.6%	1.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.2%	4.3%	8.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.0%	4.3%	8.4%	1.1%	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	4.0%	7.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.7%	5.5%	3.7%	1.2%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	8.0%	1.7%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	80.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	79.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	78.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗