KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

38%

29%

15%

12%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.40u · EPS −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	45.0%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	64.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	43.3%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	43.3%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	43.3%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	43.3%	50.0%	61.8%	35.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00	43.3%	50.0%	61.8%	22.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	43.3%	11.7%	36.4%	22.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	43.3%	11.7%	36.4%	22.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	43.3%	11.7%	36.4%	22.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	41.0%	11.7%	36.4%	22.3%	55.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	41.9%	12.2%	36.6%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	36.6%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	36.6%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	36.6%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	31.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	31.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	31.1%	22.4%	55.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	31.1%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	31.1%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	31.1%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	31.1%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	31.1%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	36.2%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:08+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	29.6%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	34.2%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	34.2%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	41.9%	12.4%	34.2%	19.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	34.2%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	34.2%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	34.2%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	34.2%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	34.2%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	28.8%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	28.8%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	22.2%	12.0%	28.8%	14.9%	37.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	45.2%	12.0%	28.8%	15.0%	38.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	45.2%	12.0%	28.8%	15.0%	38.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	80.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	79.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	78.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗