KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.4¢Risks 1.35u

EPSNO 94.6¢Risks 23.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.65u · EPS −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	38.8%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	27.1%	21.3%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	5.2%	4.4%	44.4%	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	8.7%	2.4%	24.3%	—	22.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	11.0%	3.0%	12.5%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	13.6%	5.7%	18.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	5.1%	4.9%	10.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	16.7%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	3.6%	21.4%	10.1%	—	30.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	10.0%	14.5%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	7.0%	13.9%	6.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	6.4%	15.4%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	7.2%	13.6%	10.7%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	9.6%	13.0%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	7.8%	10.3%	8.2%	96.8%	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	6.2%	9.6%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	9.4%	8.5%	10.9%	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	6.0%	9.2%	85.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	5.7%	9.4%	97.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	2.3%	6.6%	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	3.0%	3.5%	3.7%	16.6%	17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	3.7%	6.4%	3.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	4.3%	5.0%	2.4%	14.1%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	3.5%	4.0%	2.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	2.5%	2.1%	3.2%	8.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.9%	4.8%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	10%	76.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	76.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗