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KMSY / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
10%
AIFS
8%
ICON
7%
WN2
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.4¢Risks 1.35u
VS
EPSNO 94.6¢Risks 23.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.65u · EPS −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 8.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:29+00:008.4%0.6%5.0%15.9%10.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:008.4%0.6%5.0%15.9%10.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:008.4%0.6%3.8%15.9%10.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:008.4%0.6%3.8%15.9%10.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:008.4%0.6%3.8%15.9%10.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:008.8%0.6%3.8%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:008.8%0.6%3.8%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:008.8%0.6%3.8%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:008.8%0.6%3.8%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:008.8%0.6%3.8%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:008.8%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:008.8%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:008.8%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:008.4%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:008.4%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:008.4%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:008.4%0.6%2.6%10.2%6.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES10%76.7°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single8%77.1°F4.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON7%76.8°F3.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
National Blend4%77.0°F3.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%77.5°F3.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%77.8°F2.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261020-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗