KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

43%

32%

31%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 18.65u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 31.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.35u · HRES −31.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	15.9%	62.0%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	44.4%	65.1%	3.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	58.0%	58.7%	32.3%	—	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	59.1%	40.2%	40.2%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	50.0%	33.7%	25.5%	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	51.7%	45.0%	35.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	37.4%	41.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	44.8%	40.5%	33.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	44.6%	38.5%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	47.2%	27.4%	28.9%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	50.0%	26.9%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	54.9%	24.7%	34.8%	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	51.0%	29.1%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	43.9%	26.8%	39.8%	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	50.0%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	46.7%	28.2%	32.1%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	47.8%	29.6%	0.1%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	41.9%	31.0%	27.0%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	30.4%	25.3%	27.3%	—	13.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	25.6%	27.6%	32.0%	8.5%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	33.7%	24.8%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	79.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	78.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	77.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗