KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

43%

32%

31%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.3¢Risks 18.65u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 31.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +31.35u · HRES −31.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00	56.4%	63.8%	43.2%	33.3%	68.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	56.4%	63.8%	41.3%	33.3%	68.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	56.4%	63.8%	41.3%	33.3%	68.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	56.4%	63.8%	41.3%	33.3%	68.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	54.3%	63.8%	41.3%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	54.3%	63.8%	41.3%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	54.3%	63.8%	41.3%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	54.3%	63.8%	41.3%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	54.3%	63.8%	41.3%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	54.3%	62.3%	40.4%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	54.3%	62.3%	40.4%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	54.3%	62.3%	40.4%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	40.4%	30.9%	59.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	40.5%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	40.5%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	40.5%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	39.4%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	39.4%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	39.4%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	50.9%	62.3%	39.4%	30.9%	58.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	39.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	39.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	39.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	39.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	45.7%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	36.4%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	43.6%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	43.6%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	43.6%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	41.4%	62.3%	43.6%	30.2%	61.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	42.6%	62.3%	43.6%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	42.6%	62.3%	43.6%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	42.6%	62.3%	43.6%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	42.6%	62.3%	43.6%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	42.6%	62.8%	33.9%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	42.6%	62.8%	33.9%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	42.6%	62.8%	33.9%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	42.6%	62.8%	33.9%	29.6%	61.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	38.9%	62.4%	33.9%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	38.9%	62.4%	33.9%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	38.9%	44.4%	33.9%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	38.9%	44.4%	33.9%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	38.9%	44.4%	36.1%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	38.9%	44.4%	36.1%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	38.9%	44.4%	36.1%	29.5%	61.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	36.3%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	36.1%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	46.5%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	46.5%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	37.2%	44.4%	46.5%	27.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	37.4%	44.4%	46.5%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	37.4%	44.4%	46.5%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	37.4%	44.4%	46.5%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	37.4%	44.4%	46.5%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	37.4%	44.4%	46.5%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:50+00:00	37.4%	45.0%	31.4%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	37.4%	45.0%	31.4%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	37.4%	45.0%	31.4%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	32.0%	45.0%	31.4%	29.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	31.9%	45.0%	31.4%	29.6%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	79.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	43%	78.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	77.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗