KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

32%

28%

22%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.65u · HRES −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	6.6%	41.9%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	25.2%	44.4%	0.9%	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	36.4%	37.1%	15.6%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	36.5%	20.5%	20.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	27.4%	15.4%	10.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	27.9%	22.5%	15.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	16.7%	19.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	21.4%	18.4%	13.6%	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	20.9%	16.6%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	22.3%	9.8%	10.6%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	23.8%	9.2%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.1%	7.9%	13.1%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	23.4%	9.6%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	17.6%	8.2%	15.1%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	21.3%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	18.3%	8.1%	9.9%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	18.3%	8.3%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	14.0%	8.5%	6.8%	0.0%	2.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.8%	5.8%	6.6%	—	2.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.5%	6.3%	8.0%	1.0%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	8.2%	4.9%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	83.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	83.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	79.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	80.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	77.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗