KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

32%

28%

22%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

HRESNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.65u · HRES −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:53+00:00	53.5%	48.5%	60.2%	31.2%	32.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	53.5%	21.0%	38.2%	31.2%	32.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	53.5%	21.0%	38.2%	31.2%	32.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	53.5%	21.0%	38.2%	31.2%	32.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	47.2%	21.0%	38.2%	31.2%	32.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	47.2%	21.0%	38.2%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	38.2%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	38.2%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	38.2%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	36.7%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	36.7%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	47.2%	22.1%	36.7%	31.2%	33.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	36.7%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	36.7%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	36.7%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	36.7%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	36.7%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	26.1%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	27.9%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	27.9%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	27.9%	22.1%	32.3%	21.5%	53.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	83.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	83.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	79.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	80.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	77.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 83°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗