KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

EPSNO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.80u · EPS −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	5.9%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	2.2%	23.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	11.5%	25.2%	0.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	18.4%	18.9%	5.9%	—	5.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	17.9%	8.1%	8.1%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	11.5%	5.3%	3.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	11.2%	8.3%	5.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	5.9%	3.9%	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.9%	5.0%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.3%	2.3%	2.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.7%	2.1%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	9.0%	1.6%	3.2%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.0%	2.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.4%	1.5%	3.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.5%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.2%	1.3%	1.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.5%	1.2%	0.9%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	0.4%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	82.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.1°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗