KMSY / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

EPSNO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.80u · EPS −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:54+00:00	32.8%	11.7%	38.3%	16.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	18.3%	16.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	18.3%	16.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:20+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	18.3%	16.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	18.3%	16.8%	22.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	27.3%	2.5%	18.5%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:16+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	18.5%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:56+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	18.5%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	18.5%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	17.4%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	17.4%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	27.3%	2.7%	17.4%	16.8%	23.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	17.4%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	17.4%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	17.4%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	17.4%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	17.4%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	12.0%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:09+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	14.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	19.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	19.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	13.1%	2.7%	19.5%	10.4%	41.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:39+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	19.5%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	19.5%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	19.5%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	19.5%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	19.5%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:18+00:00	17.7%	2.7%	14.2%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:51+00:00	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	11.5%	42.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	23.5%	0.4%	14.2%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	23.5%	0.4%	14.2%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	14.2%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	14.2%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	16.8%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:43+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	16.8%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	16.8%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	23.5%	0.3%	16.8%	11.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	16.8%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	16.8%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	16.8%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	16.8%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	13.3%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:06+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.9%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	12.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	43.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	10.9%	0.3%	9.6%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	10.9%	0.0%	5.4%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	10.9%	0.0%	5.4%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	10.9%	0.0%	5.4%	13.4%	29.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:30+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.4%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.4%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.4%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	29.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:00+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	30.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	30.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	30.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	9.1%	30.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	6.9%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	5.2%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	4.7%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	4.7%	7.1%	30.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	14.7%	0.1%	4.7%	7.1%	30.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	82.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.1°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗