KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

48%

44%

44%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.7¢Risks 19.37u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 30.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +30.63u · HRES −30.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	43.6%	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	10.5%	41.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	33.6%	2.4%	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	60.1%	39.9%	35.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	36.5%	30.9%	32.3%	—	23.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	33.0%	31.6%	32.3%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	34.9%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	40.9%	36.1%	30.0%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	33.4%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	45.6%	29.9%	26.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	41.1%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	41.8%	34.7%	28.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	44.3%	36.1%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	41.3%	36.6%	28.7%	21.0%	20.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	44.0%	—	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	81.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗