KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

48%

44%

44%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.7¢Risks 19.37u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 30.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +30.63u · HRES −30.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	32.1%	59.9%	37.6%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	32.1%	39.6%	37.6%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	32.1%	39.6%	37.6%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	32.1%	39.6%	39.4%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	32.1%	39.6%	39.4%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	32.1%	39.6%	39.4%	35.2%	53.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	39.4%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	39.4%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	39.4%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	39.4%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	39.4%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	29.3%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	31.4%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	31.4%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	31.4%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	31.4%	39.6%	38.5%	30.8%	60.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	44.7%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	44.7%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	44.7%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	41.5%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	41.5%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	33.1%	37.6%	41.5%	28.8%	59.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	41.5%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	41.5%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	41.5%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	41.5%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	41.5%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	34.7%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	45.7%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	38.8%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	43.5%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	43.5%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	43.5%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	43.5%	37.6%	51.1%	23.6%	48.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	43.5%	44.4%	47.6%	29.5%	48.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	81.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗