KMSY / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

13%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.4¢Risks 4.20u

EPSNO 91.6¢Risks 45.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.80u · EPS −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	22.7%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	2.7%	18.9%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	38.2%	13.0%	0.4%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	31.7%	16.1%	13.6%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	13.4%	10.3%	11.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	10.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	10.8%	10.0%	10.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	11.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	14.3%	11.6%	8.7%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	9.9%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	16.1%	8.0%	6.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	13.0%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	12.9%	9.4%	6.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.7%	9.6%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	11.6%	9.4%	6.2%	3.8%	3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	12.4%	—	—	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	15%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	80.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	81.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	79.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	81.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗