KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

41%

40%

23%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.20u · HRES −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	4.8%	68.2%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	50.0%	52.1%	3.9%	—	27.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	59.4%	50.7%	45.6%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	36.5%	35.8%	28.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	26.1%	25.5%	39.0%	—	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	35.3%	35.3%	30.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	31.1%	30.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	35.4%	33.8%	25.5%	23.4%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	31.8%	—	—	12.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	80.4°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	80.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗