KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

41%

40%

23%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.20u · HRES −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	47.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	47.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	47.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	48.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	48.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	40.4%	68.2%	48.1%	23.9%	46.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	48.1%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	48.1%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	48.1%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	48.1%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	48.1%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	38.1%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	39.6%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	39.6%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	39.6%	68.2%	41.3%	23.4%	55.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	80.4°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	80.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	78.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗