KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

29%

26%

15%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.3¢Risks 12.17u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 37.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.82u · HRES −37.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	2.3%	55.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	36.2%	38.2%	1.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	44.9%	36.4%	31.7%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	23.4%	22.8%	17.4%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	14.9%	14.5%	24.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	21.3%	21.3%	17.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	17.8%	17.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	20.8%	19.6%	13.6%	12.2%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	17.8%	—	—	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	34%	79.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	80.6°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗