KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

29%

26%

15%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.3¢Risks 12.17u

HRESNO 75.6¢Risks 37.82u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.82u · HRES −37.82u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	34.2%	48.0%	44.0%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	34.2%	34.4%	44.0%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	34.2%	34.4%	44.0%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	34.2%	34.4%	42.4%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	34.2%	34.4%	42.4%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	34.2%	34.4%	42.4%	17.4%	66.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	42.4%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	42.4%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	42.4%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	42.4%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	42.4%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	30.2%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	43.2%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	39.9%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	39.9%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	29.0%	34.4%	39.9%	16.6%	49.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	25.2%	34.4%	39.9%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	25.2%	34.4%	39.9%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	25.2%	34.4%	39.9%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	25.2%	34.4%	39.9%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	25.2%	34.4%	39.9%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	25.2%	31.8%	28.8%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	25.2%	31.8%	28.8%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	25.2%	31.8%	28.8%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	25.9%	31.8%	28.8%	14.6%	34.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	25.9%	31.8%	28.8%	14.6%	34.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	34%	79.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	80.6°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗