KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

28%

22%

15%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.15u

HRESNO 66.8¢Risks 66.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.85u · HRES −66.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:26+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	42.7%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	42.7%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:36+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	42.7%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	42.7%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	42.7%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	43.0%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	43.0%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	34.5%	25.2%	43.0%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	43.0%	18.1%	17.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	43.0%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	43.0%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	43.0%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	39.2%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	39.2%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	39.2%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	31.9%	25.2%	39.2%	18.0%	18.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	39.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	39.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	39.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	39.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	30.7%	25.2%	36.2%	8.6%	52.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	24.1%	25.2%	36.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	24.1%	25.2%	36.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	24.1%	25.2%	36.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	24.1%	25.2%	36.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:44+00:00	24.1%	14.1%	28.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	24.1%	14.1%	28.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	24.1%	14.1%	28.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	24.1%	14.1%	28.2%	10.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	21.9%	14.7%	28.2%	10.7%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	84.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	80.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	81.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	75.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗