KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

28%

22%

15%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.15u

HRESNO 66.8¢Risks 66.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.85u · HRES −66.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	32.4%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	1.0%	41.9%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	24.1%	25.7%	0.7%	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	31.0%	23.7%	19.9%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	13.4%	12.9%	9.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	7.5%	7.2%	14.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	11.2%	11.2%	8.7%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	8.8%	8.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.5%	9.7%	6.2%	5.4%	2.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	84.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	80.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	79.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	81.4°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	75.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗