KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.8¢Risks 4.38u

EPSNO 91.2¢Risks 45.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.62u · EPS −45.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	16.8%	6.1%	21.4%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	16.8%	4.1%	21.4%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	16.8%	4.1%	21.4%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	16.8%	4.1%	20.2%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	16.8%	4.1%	20.2%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	16.8%	4.1%	20.2%	8.2%	50.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.2%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.2%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.2%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.2%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.2%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	14.2%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	20.8%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	18.4%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	18.4%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	13.4%	4.1%	18.4%	7.7%	33.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	10.2%	4.1%	18.4%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	10.2%	4.1%	18.4%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	10.2%	4.1%	18.4%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	10.2%	4.1%	18.4%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	10.2%	4.1%	18.4%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	10.2%	2.0%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	10.2%	2.0%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	10.2%	2.0%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	10.5%	2.0%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	10.5%	2.0%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	9.9%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	10.3%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	10.3%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	10.5%	1.5%	10.3%	5.8%	18.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	10.3%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	10.3%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	10.3%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	10.3%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	10.3%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	9.4%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	7.6%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	10.1%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	25.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	10.3%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	15.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	10.3%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	15.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	10.3%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	15.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	10.3%	1.5%	12.1%	5.6%	15.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	10.3%	2.3%	9.4%	3.8%	15.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	10.3%	2.3%	9.4%	3.8%	15.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	10.3%	2.3%	9.4%	3.8%	15.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	10.3%	2.3%	9.4%	3.8%	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	79.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	78.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗