KMSY / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.8¢Risks 4.38u

EPSNO 91.2¢Risks 45.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.62u · EPS −45.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	26.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.6%	35.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.9%	20.4%	0.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	24.9%	18.4%	15.2%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	9.7%	9.3%	6.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.1%	4.9%	10.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	7.7%	5.8%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.9%	5.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.0%	6.5%	3.9%	3.4%	1.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	5.5%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	79.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	78.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	80.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261024-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗