KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

54%

54%

44%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

HRESNO 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.65u · HRES −51.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	68.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	2.7%	58.1%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	34.3%	47.9%	3.9%	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	37.1%	39.2%	26.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	31.6%	37.2%	30.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	49.2%	49.2%	36.7%	38.2%	18.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	17.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	80.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	77.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗