KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

54%

54%

44%

30%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

HRESNO 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.65u · HRES −51.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	39.7%	62.6%	51.6%	41.4%	59.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	39.7%	62.6%	56.2%	41.4%	59.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	39.7%	62.6%	56.2%	41.4%	59.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	39.7%	62.6%	56.2%	41.4%	59.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	41.2%	62.6%	56.2%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	41.2%	62.6%	56.2%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	41.2%	62.6%	56.2%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	41.2%	62.6%	56.2%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	41.2%	62.6%	56.2%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	41.2%	45.1%	58.5%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	41.2%	45.1%	58.5%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	41.2%	45.1%	58.5%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	34.9%	45.1%	58.5%	24.8%	60.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	34.9%	45.1%	58.5%	24.7%	60.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00	43.4%	41.9%	50.0%	18.1%	56.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	43.4%	41.9%	50.0%	18.1%	56.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	43.4%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	56.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	43.4%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	56.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	43.4%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	56.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	54.0%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	66.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	54.0%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	66.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	54.0%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	66.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	54.0%	41.9%	55.1%	18.1%	66.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	54.0%	44.3%	53.9%	30.2%	66.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	66%	80.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	77.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.2°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗