KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

33%

30%

15%

11%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.1¢Risks 28.10u

HRESNO 71.9¢Risks 71.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.90u · HRES −71.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	56.6%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	1.2%	44.6%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	22.4%	34.3%	1.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	24.3%	26.0%	15.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	19.5%	23.9%	18.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	33.7%	33.7%	23.0%	24.2%	10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	78.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	77.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	76.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	77.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	71.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗