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KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
45%
WN2
33%
AIFS
30%
EPS
15%
HRES
11%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 28.1¢Risks 28.10u
VS
HRESNO 71.9¢Risks 71.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.90u · HRES −71.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 16.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:0022.4%15.3%41.5%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:0022.4%15.3%41.5%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:0022.4%15.3%41.5%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:0022.4%15.3%35.0%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:0022.4%15.3%35.0%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:0022.4%15.3%35.0%16.2%48.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:0024.1%15.3%35.0%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:0024.1%15.3%35.0%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:0024.1%15.3%35.0%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:0024.1%15.3%35.0%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0024.1%15.3%35.0%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:0024.1%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:0024.1%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0024.1%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:0029.6%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:0029.6%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:0029.6%15.3%33.4%11.2%45.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend46%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON45%78.6°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 233%77.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single30%76.6°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%77.0°F2.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES11%71.5°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗