KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.80u

EPSNO 88.2¢Risks 88.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.20u · EPS −88.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	13.7%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	13.7%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	13.7%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	6.7%	8.4%	13.7%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	6.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	6.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	6.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	6.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	7.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:46+00:00	7.7%	0.9%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	9.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	8.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	8.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	8.5%	2.6%	8.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	8.5%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	8.5%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	8.5%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	8.5%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	8.5%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	4.4%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:45+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	9.2%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	11.3%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	11.3%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	7.0%	0.7%	11.3%	9.6%	31.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:06+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	11.3%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	11.3%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	11.3%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	11.3%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:10+00:00	6.5%	0.7%	11.3%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:51+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	9.9%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	9.9%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	9.9%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	9.9%	4.1%	23.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	9.9%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	9.9%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	9.9%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	9.9%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	7.3%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	7.3%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	7.3%	4.0%	23.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	7.3%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	7.3%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	7.3%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	7.3%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	7.3%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	5.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:34+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	20.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	23.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	23.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	23.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	9.4%	0.1%	8.5%	2.4%	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	80.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	78.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	71.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗