KMSY / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.80u

EPSNO 88.2¢Risks 88.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.20u · EPS −88.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	27.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	19.3%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	16.3%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.1%	9.9%	0.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.3%	5.9%	2.7%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	4.8%	3.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.8%	7.8%	4.1%	4.5%	1.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	9.2%	—	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	80.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	78.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	71.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗