KMSY / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

36%

35%

26%

17%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.8¢Risks 36.75u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.25u · EPS −63.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	52.4%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	38.8%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	5.7%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.4%	33.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	30.5%	33.6%	3.3%	—	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	33.7%	49.3%	31.7%	31.7%	17.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	56.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	81.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	77.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	77.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗