KMSY / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

33%

22%

17%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 20.1¢Risks 20.15u

EPSNO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +79.85u · EPS −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	41.8%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	36.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	53.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	34.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	29.5%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	25.8%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.9%	45.3%	27.7%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	55.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	79.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	79.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	76.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	72.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	77.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗