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KMSY / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
18%
WN2
15%
HRES
11%
ICON
11%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u
VS
EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:34+00:0018.2%0.2%15.4%11.0%10.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0018.2%0.2%15.4%11.0%10.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0018.2%0.2%15.4%11.0%10.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0018.2%0.2%15.4%11.0%10.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend22%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single18%79.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 215%79.3°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES11%76.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON11%72.1°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%77.6°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261027-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗