KMSY / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New Orleans, LAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

15%

11%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	25.9%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	35.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	15.2%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.2%	26.5%	13.5%	6.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	35.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	22%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	79.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	79.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	76.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	72.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMSY

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSY-20261027-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗