KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

77%

52%

20%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	9.6%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	15.5%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	64.4%	34.3%	5.2%	—	73.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	80.1%	80.1%	62.9%	—	78.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	65.6%	85.4%	68.4%	—	78.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	74.5%	27.4%	49.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	69.2%	19.5%	57.5%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	36.6%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	32.2%	71.6%	48.2%	—	39.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	42.9%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	42.7%	71.0%	34.7%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	41.5%	69.1%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.5%	66.1%	39.4%	—	39.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	37.2%	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	42.8%	60.2%	39.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	32.6%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	26.4%	58.7%	26.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	25.8%	59.0%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	20.7%	61.5%	41.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	25.3%	64.1%	38.1%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	30.9%	65.8%	42.6%	24.6%	36.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	31.4%	60.2%	44.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	28.4%	55.4%	40.7%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	45.8%	55.6%	45.8%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	64.2%	61.4%	55.8%	42.8%	52.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	61.9%	61.9%	57.5%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	54.7%	65.4%	62.4%	53.2%	42.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	77.2%	63.0%	67.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0081
AIFS Single	83%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0279
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	52%	63.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2294
ICON	20%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6448

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗