KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

77%

52%

20%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:38+00:00	82.5%	94.8%	76.2%	53.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	82.5%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	82.5%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	82.5%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	81.2%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	81.2%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	81.2%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	81.2%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	81.2%	94.8%	81.3%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	81.2%	95.9%	79.0%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	81.2%	95.9%	79.0%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	81.2%	95.9%	79.0%	53.6%	23.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	79.8%	95.9%	79.0%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	79.8%	95.8%	79.0%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	79.0%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	79.0%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	79.0%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	23.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	79.8%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	80.5%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	80.5%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	80.5%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	80.5%	92.2%	80.8%	55.8%	19.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	83.2%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	83.2%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	78.5%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	78.5%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	78.5%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	76.9%	77.2%	78.5%	55.3%	20.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	78.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	78.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	78.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	78.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	77.7%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	80.5%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	91.0%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	91.0%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	91.0%	52.1%	19.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	91.0%	52.1%	19.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0081
AIFS Single	83%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0279
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	52%	63.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2294
ICON	20%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.6448

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗