KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

61%

59%

34%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	10.7%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	5.1%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	8.8%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	50.7%	22.4%	2.4%	—	61.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	68.3%	68.3%	48.5%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	50.8%	74.9%	53.8%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	60.3%	15.9%	33.7%	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	53.3%	10.1%	40.9%	—	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	22.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	18.4%	55.2%	31.4%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	26.4%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	25.9%	53.7%	19.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	24.6%	50.9%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	21.8%	47.1%	22.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	20.4%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	24.3%	39.8%	21.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	16.3%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	11.9%	37.1%	11.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	11.2%	36.7%	0.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	8.1%	38.5%	21.5%	—	19.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	10.2%	40.5%	18.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	13.0%	41.3%	20.8%	9.5%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	12.8%	34.9%	21.9%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	10.7%	29.5%	18.2%	10.1%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	21.1%	28.8%	21.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	35.8%	33.1%	28.0%	18.2%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	32.5%	32.5%	28.5%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	25.0%	34.6%	31.7%	23.8%	16.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	46.7%	30.9%	35.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	67.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	61%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1537
AIFS Single	59%	66.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3481
IFS HRES	34%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4316
ICON	8%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8427

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗