KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

61%

59%

34%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:23+00:00	57.8%	90.9%	52.1%	33.7%	41.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	57.8%	90.9%	52.1%	33.7%	41.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	57.8%	90.9%	55.3%	33.7%	41.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	57.8%	90.9%	55.3%	33.7%	41.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	57.8%	90.9%	55.3%	33.7%	41.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	55.3%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	55.3%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	55.3%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	55.3%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	64.5%	90.9%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	64.5%	89.2%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	66.3%	89.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	66.3%	89.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	66.3%	85.0%	53.5%	38.6%	26.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	53.5%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	53.5%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	53.5%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	53.5%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	67.1%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	68.0%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	68.0%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	68.0%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	68.0%	85.0%	54.7%	36.0%	30.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:08+00:00	64.4%	78.9%	58.9%	36.6%	7.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	64.4%	78.9%	63.9%	36.6%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	64.4%	78.9%	63.9%	36.6%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	64.4%	78.9%	63.9%	36.6%	7.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	61.9%	78.9%	63.9%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	61.9%	78.9%	63.9%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	61.9%	78.9%	63.9%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	61.9%	78.9%	63.9%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	61.9%	78.9%	63.9%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	61.9%	75.2%	60.8%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	61.9%	75.2%	60.8%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	61.9%	75.2%	60.8%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	59.0%	75.2%	60.8%	34.3%	8.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	59.0%	74.8%	60.8%	34.3%	8.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	67.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0635
WeatherNext 2	61%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1537
AIFS Single	59%	66.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1681
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.3481
IFS HRES	34%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4316
ICON	8%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8427

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗