KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

41%

31%

26%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

HRESNO 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.30u · HRES −52.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	5.9%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	36.9%	13.4%	1.0%	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	54.4%	54.4%	34.3%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	35.8%	61.3%	38.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	44.4%	8.1%	20.6%	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	36.9%	4.5%	25.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	11.5%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	9.0%	37.9%	17.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	14.0%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	13.4%	35.6%	9.4%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	12.2%	32.6%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	10.2%	28.7%	10.7%	—	10.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	9.2%	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	11.3%	21.9%	9.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	6.5%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	4.2%	19.0%	4.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	3.8%	18.3%	0.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	2.4%	19.1%	8.5%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	3.1%	19.9%	6.6%	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	4.0%	19.9%	7.5%	2.6%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	3.7%	15.0%	7.7%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	2.8%	11.3%	5.7%	2.6%	3.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	6.7%	10.4%	6.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	13.8%	12.2%	9.5%	5.1%	8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.2%	11.2%	9.2%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	11.7%	10.2%	6.6%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	18.1%	9.2%	11.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	75%	69.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0635
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1962
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
AIFS Single	41%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3528
WeatherNext 2	31%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4706
ICON	26%	64.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5476
IFS HRES	21%	63.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6304

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗