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KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
75%
AIFS
41%
WN2
31%
ICON
26%
HRES
21%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.70u
VS
HRESNO 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.30u · HRES −52.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00AIFS Single: 42.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:0031.6%74.8%36.3%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0031.6%74.8%36.3%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0031.6%74.8%36.3%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0031.6%74.8%30.5%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0031.6%74.8%30.5%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0031.6%74.8%30.5%24.8%18.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:0042.2%74.8%30.5%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:0042.2%74.8%30.5%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0042.2%74.8%30.5%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:0042.2%74.8%30.5%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0042.2%74.8%30.5%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0042.2%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:0042.2%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0042.2%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0040.6%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0040.6%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0040.6%74.8%31.4%20.6%26.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble75%69.5°F3.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0635
National Blend56%68.0°F3.5°F2026-10-14 06:000.1962
NWS forecast55%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:000.2070
AIFS Single41%66.4°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:000.3528
WeatherNext 231%65.7°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:000.4706
ICON26%64.4°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.5476
IFS HRES21%63.4°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.6304

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗