KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

25%

12%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u

WN2NO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.45u · WN2 −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.2%	2.3%	0.1%	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	21.0%	21.0%	9.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	9.3%	25.1%	10.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	12.7%	0.8%	3.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	8.3%	0.3%	4.5%	—	4.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.1%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.7%	8.0%	2.2%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.4%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.2%	6.3%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	5.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.6%	3.8%	0.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.5%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	1.9%	0.5%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	1.2%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	1.0%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2916
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2285
ICON	25%	68.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0620
IFS HRES	12%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0151
AIFS Single	9%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0083
WeatherNext 2	7%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗