KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

25%

12%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.5¢Risks 27.55u

WN2NO 72.5¢Risks 72.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.45u · WN2 −72.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:21+00:00	7.3%	57.8%	26.7%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	7.3%	57.8%	26.7%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00	7.3%	57.8%	26.7%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	7.3%	57.8%	26.7%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:04+00:00	7.3%	57.8%	26.7%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:05+00:00	7.3%	43.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	7.3%	43.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	7.3%	43.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	19.4%	43.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	19.5%	43.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:57+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	10.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	12.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	12.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	19.5%	44.0%	12.8%	65.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	12.8%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	12.8%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	12.8%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	12.8%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	12.8%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	19.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:45+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	15.6%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:22+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	14.7%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:29+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	14.7%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	29.0%	44.0%	14.7%	48.7%	40.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	14.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	14.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	14.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	14.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	14.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	20.9%	44.0%	8.6%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	20.9%	46.4%	8.6%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	20.9%	46.4%	8.6%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	12.9%	46.4%	8.6%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	12.9%	46.4%	8.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:36+00:00	12.9%	46.4%	8.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	12.9%	47.0%	8.7%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	12.9%	47.0%	11.4%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	12.9%	47.0%	11.4%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	12.9%	47.0%	11.4%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	12.9%	47.0%	11.4%	56.7%	44.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.4%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.4%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.4%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.4%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	11.0%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	11.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	17.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	17.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	17.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	16.4%	47.0%	17.9%	24.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:50+00:00	19.1%	47.0%	17.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	19.1%	47.0%	17.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	19.1%	47.0%	17.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	19.1%	47.0%	17.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	19.1%	47.8%	9.7%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	19.1%	47.8%	9.7%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	19.1%	47.8%	9.7%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	19.1%	47.8%	9.7%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	9.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	9.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	9.9%	17.5%	29.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	9.9%	17.8%	29.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	29.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	29.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	16.6%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	29.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	24.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	24.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	24.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.9%	17.8%	24.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.9%	12.6%	24.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.3%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.3%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	18.2%	47.8%	7.3%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	9.1%	47.8%	7.3%	12.3%	24.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	9.1%	47.8%	7.3%	12.3%	24.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2916
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	48%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2285
ICON	25%	68.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0620
IFS HRES	12%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0151
AIFS Single	9%	65.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0083
WeatherNext 2	7%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗