KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≤ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

WN2NO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.55u · WN2 −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	67.6%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	79.3%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	69.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	18.4%	45.1%	86.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	8.2%	8.2%	18.9%	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	16.4%	5.2%	14.6%	—	8.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	10.4%	50.0%	28.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	12.9%	59.1%	20.7%	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	38.2%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	42.2%	10.9%	26.9%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	31.0%	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	30.6%	10.6%	38.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	30.9%	11.3%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	33.0%	12.6%	32.1%	—	32.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	33.5%	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	27.6%	15.1%	30.3%	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	36.5%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	42.4%	14.9%	42.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	42.2%	14.1%	100.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	47.7%	12.1%	25.1%	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	40.5%	10.2%	27.3%	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	33.1%	8.9%	22.7%	40.1%	27.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	31.4%	10.9%	20.0%	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	33.1%	12.7%	22.0%	34.3%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.3%	11.8%	17.3%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	7.3%	8.3%	10.8%	18.2%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	7.5%	7.5%	9.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	9.6%	5.7%	6.6%	10.2%	16.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	2.3%	5.8%	4.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	20%	63.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0380
National Blend	6%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
IFS Ensemble	6%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0034
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	4%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0018
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗