KOKC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≤ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

WN2NO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.55u · WN2 −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:49+00:00	8.9%	0.1%	7.3%	23.6%	30.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	8.9%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	30.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	8.9%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	30.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	8.9%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	30.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	30.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	6.3%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	8.5%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	8.5%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	8.5%	23.6%	29.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.5%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.5%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.5%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.5%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.5%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:24+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	8.1%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	7.0%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	7.0%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	10.0%	0.1%	7.0%	28.1%	21.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	7.0%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	7.0%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	7.0%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	7.0%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	5.8%	20.4%	26.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	5.3%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:40+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	5.5%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	22.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	5.2%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	5.2%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	5.2%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	5.2%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	5.2%	0.6%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	5.2%	0.4%	3.8%	22.3%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	5.8%	0.4%	3.8%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	5.8%	0.4%	3.8%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.8%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.8%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.8%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	45.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:08+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	3.3%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	2.5%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	2.5%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	2.5%	19.0%	51.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	2.5%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	2.5%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	2.5%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	2.5%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	5.8%	0.9%	2.5%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	5.8%	1.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	5.8%	1.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	5.8%	1.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	6.7%	2.0%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	2.3%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	3.4%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	3.4%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	3.4%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	6.7%	5.8%	3.4%	17.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	3.4%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	3.4%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	3.4%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	3.4%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	2.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	0.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	0.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	0.9%	19.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	4.2%	5.8%	0.9%	19.5%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	60.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	20%	63.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0380
National Blend	6%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
IFS Ensemble	6%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0034
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	4%	67.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0018
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261018-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗