KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

66%

50%

34%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.20u · ICON −36.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	85.1%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	1.8%	73.5%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	83.8%	65.1%	0.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	35.7%	65.0%	28.5%	—	42.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	39.4%	77.2%	40.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	35.9%	71.2%	21.8%	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	47.5%	47.5%	30.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	11.9%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	32.2%	47.4%	29.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	27.1%	41.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	27.4%	45.4%	41.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	25.3%	40.6%	—	—	34.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	33.0%	49.0%	37.6%	—	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.4%	40.1%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	27.6%	39.8%	35.9%	0.0%	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	32.6%	39.5%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	39.2%	34.1%	38.2%	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	29.6%	36.7%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	27.0%	40.8%	27.0%	0.0%	28.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	27.3%	35.9%	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	47.5%	32.0%	28.7%	43.8%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	39.8%	31.4%	36.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	38.1%	36.8%	44.6%	21.0%	26.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	52.8%	21.1%	44.4%	—	39.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	60.1%	35.8%	57.2%	64.2%	54.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	38.1%	45.5%	—	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	72.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗