KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

66%

50%

34%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

ICONNO 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.20u · ICON −36.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:21+00:00	80.6%	60.5%	63.9%	41.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	80.6%	60.5%	78.8%	41.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	80.6%	60.5%	78.8%	41.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	80.6%	60.5%	78.8%	41.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	80.6%	60.5%	78.8%	41.1%	34.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	82.5%	60.5%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	82.5%	60.5%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	82.5%	60.5%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	82.5%	60.5%	78.8%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	82.5%	61.6%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	82.5%	61.6%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	82.5%	61.6%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	82.5%	61.6%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	78.5%	61.2%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	78.5%	61.2%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	78.5%	58.3%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	78.5%	58.3%	74.1%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	78.5%	58.3%	67.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	78.5%	58.3%	67.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	78.5%	58.3%	67.4%	56.8%	35.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	67.4%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	67.4%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	67.4%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	67.4%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	67.4%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	79.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	66.3%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	84.9%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	84.9%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	81.9%	58.3%	84.9%	46.1%	25.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:24+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	84.9%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	84.9%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	84.9%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	84.9%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	84.9%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	83.9%	65.4%	82.3%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	83.9%	65.4%	82.3%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	83.9%	65.4%	82.3%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	80.6%	65.4%	82.3%	64.7%	33.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	80.7%	65.4%	82.3%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	82.3%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	82.3%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	82.3%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	75.4%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	75.4%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	80.7%	66.3%	75.4%	64.7%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	81.3%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	75.4%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	87.4%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	94.1%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	94.1%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	94.1%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	33.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	94.1%	66.3%	91.0%	50.0%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	77.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	72.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗