KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

41%

37%

25%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

ICONNO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · ICON −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	76.6%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	37.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	61.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	73.7%	51.4%	0.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	23.2%	50.7%	17.5%	—	28.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	25.8%	64.2%	27.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	22.4%	56.4%	11.9%	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	31.5%	31.5%	17.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	5.4%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	18.4%	30.7%	16.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	14.5%	24.9%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	14.4%	28.2%	25.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	12.7%	23.8%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	17.7%	30.4%	21.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	13.5%	22.6%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	13.4%	21.9%	19.0%	0.0%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	16.3%	21.3%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	20.6%	16.9%	19.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	13.5%	18.3%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	11.6%	20.7%	11.6%	0.0%	12.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	11.4%	16.7%	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	24.6%	13.7%	11.8%	21.7%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	18.2%	12.8%	15.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	16.5%	15.7%	21.0%	7.0%	9.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	26.5%	6.7%	20.1%	—	16.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	31.8%	13.8%	29.3%	35.8%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	14.4%	19.2%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	76.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗