KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

41%

37%

25%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

ICONNO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · ICON −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:08+00:00	66.9%	56.6%	53.2%	27.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	66.9%	56.6%	56.4%	27.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	66.9%	56.6%	56.4%	27.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	66.9%	56.6%	56.4%	27.4%	27.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	68.8%	56.6%	56.4%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	68.8%	56.6%	56.4%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	68.8%	56.6%	56.4%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	68.8%	56.6%	56.4%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	68.8%	56.6%	56.4%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	68.8%	53.6%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	68.8%	53.6%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	68.8%	53.6%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	64.6%	53.6%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	64.6%	53.6%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	53.5%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	47.6%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	47.6%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	47.6%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	64.6%	37.3%	47.6%	32.7%	21.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	60.1%	37.3%	47.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	60.1%	37.3%	47.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	60.1%	37.3%	47.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	60.1%	37.3%	47.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	60.1%	37.3%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	60.1%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	60.1%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	60.1%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	65.4%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	65.4%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	65.4%	37.2%	40.6%	25.1%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	76.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	73.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	70.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗