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KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
5%
HRES
5%
WN2
2%
EPS
2%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.1¢Risks 0.78u
VS
ICONNO 96.9¢Risks 24.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.22u · ICON −24.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.5%————4.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:004.2%————5.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0021.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:009.8%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.7%————4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:004.8%————4.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:005.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:009.8%————7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:004.7%————12.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:002.0%————13.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.6%————17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0014.0%————13.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0016.2%————11.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0012.5%—3.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.6%————13.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:002.1%—24.4%——12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.7%—26.6%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%—3.8%——6.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.2%—15.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%10.8%——6.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.7%—5.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%17.1%6.0%0.0%—5.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.4%—7.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.2%0.9%5.1%0.5%—1.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.7%—14.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.9%8.7%1.0%—0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.9%—7.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.5%5.1%0.1%—1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.8%—4.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.9%0.9%0.2%—0.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.2%0.0%0.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.2%0.7%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%0.3%——0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%0.4%0.3%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%0.2%——0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%0.3%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend7%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
AIFS Single5%76.1°F4.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%74.0°F5.8°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%75.2°F4.1°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%76.6°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON<1%72.1°F4.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗