KOKC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.1¢Risks 0.78u

ICONNO 96.9¢Risks 24.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.22u · ICON −24.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:51+00:00	0.5%	24.1%	2.6%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.5%	24.1%	2.6%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	0.5%	24.1%	2.6%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.5%	24.1%	2.6%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.5%	10.6%	1.1%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	0.5%	10.6%	1.1%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	0.5%	10.6%	1.1%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.5%	10.6%	1.1%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	1.2%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	1.2%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:44+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	1.2%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	1.2%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	3.8%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	2.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	46.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	46.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	46.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	2.5%	30.1%	46.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	2.5%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	1.9%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	7.2%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	46.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	9.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	9.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	9.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	3.4%	24.9%	9.1%
2026-10-14T10:33:50+00:00	11.7%	10.6%	3.4%	6.2%	9.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	11.7%	1.2%	1.5%	6.2%	9.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	11.7%	1.2%	1.5%	6.2%	9.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	11.7%	1.2%	1.5%	6.2%	9.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	7.3%	1.2%	1.5%	6.2%	9.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	7.9%	1.3%	1.6%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	1.6%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	1.6%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	1.6%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	2.4%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	2.4%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	7.9%	1.2%	2.4%	6.2%	9.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	2.4%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	2.4%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	2.4%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	2.4%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	2.4%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	6.2%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	1.7%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	2.8%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	2.8%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	6.0%	1.2%	2.8%	4.9%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	2.8%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	2.8%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	2.8%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	2.8%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	0.7%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	4.7%	1.2%	0.7%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	4.7%	2.4%	0.7%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	4.7%	2.4%	0.7%	5.9%	4.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	9.2%	2.4%	0.7%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	9.2%	2.4%	0.7%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:27+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	0.7%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	0.7%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	1.0%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	1.0%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	1.0%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	9.2%	1.8%	1.0%	6.0%	4.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.0%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.0%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.0%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.0%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	6.8%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:43+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	1.8%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	8.2%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	7.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	0.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	0.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	0.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	0.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	5.3%	1.8%	2.2%	5.0%	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	7%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	76.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	76.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗