KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

77%

72%

70%

47%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

ICONNO 35.6¢Risks 35.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.55u · ICON −35.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	8.6%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	40.3%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	4.3%	43.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	34.9%	33.6%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	19.4%	56.6%	17.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	39.4%	43.2%	27.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	33.0%	45.2%	35.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	27.2%	36.1%	36.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	11.1%	43.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	38.8%	45.6%	40.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	38.5%	42.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	35.6%	35.6%	33.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	42.5%	33.5%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	35.7%	33.0%	46.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	31.7%	41.1%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	24.3%	39.8%	43.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	39.5%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	48.9%	37.1%	36.1%	—	42.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	36.7%	40.0%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	44.2%	39.6%	38.5%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	58.4%	38.1%	34.7%	—	38.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	61.1%	40.1%	41.3%	46.3%	56.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	43.6%	42.3%	—	39.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	79.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	79.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	47%	76.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗