KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

37%

19%

13%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.3¢Risks 27.35u

EPSNO 72.7¢Risks 72.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.65u · EPS −72.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	1.8%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	14.4%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	15.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	10.2%	9.6%	0.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	3.8%	22.6%	3.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	11.0%	12.9%	5.8%	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.5%	13.1%	8.4%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	4.9%	8.0%	8.3%	—	8.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.1%	10.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	8.3%	11.3%	9.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	7.8%	9.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	6.3%	6.3%	5.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	8.4%	5.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	5.6%	4.9%	9.4%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	4.2%	7.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	6.1%	7.4%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	5.5%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	8.1%	4.5%	4.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	4.0%	4.8%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.4%	4.2%	4.0%	0.0%	2.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	9.7%	3.5%	2.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	10.0%	3.5%	3.7%	4.9%	8.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	3.7%	3.5%	—	3.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	19%	76.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	74.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	77.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗