KOKC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

37%

19%

13%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.3¢Risks 27.35u

EPSNO 72.7¢Risks 72.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.65u · EPS −72.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:50+00:00	21.2%	34.5%	24.0%	32.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	21.2%	17.7%	25.4%	32.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	21.2%	17.7%	25.4%	32.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	21.2%	17.7%	25.4%	32.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	25.4%	32.4%	14.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	25.5%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	25.5%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	25.5%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	25.5%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	32.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	36.1%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	23.6%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.8%	17.2%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:00+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	26.8%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	26.8%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	26.8%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	26.8%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:39+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	22.0%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	38.3%	17.7%	22.0%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	38.3%	14.0%	22.0%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	38.3%	14.0%	22.0%	29.2%	19.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	47.8%	14.0%	22.0%	29.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	47.8%	14.0%	22.0%	29.3%	19.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:43+00:00	42.6%	11.1%	34.2%	31.9%	34.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	42.6%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	34.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	42.6%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	42.6%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	34.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	32.1%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	32.1%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	32.1%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	32.1%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	32.1%	11.1%	29.6%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	32.1%	17.5%	24.0%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	32.1%	17.5%	24.0%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	32.1%	17.5%	24.0%	31.9%	22.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	33.6%	17.5%	24.0%	16.2%	22.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	33.6%	17.5%	24.0%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	24.0%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	24.0%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	24.0%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	33.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	22.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	19.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	19.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	19.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	33.1%	16.2%	19.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	33.1%	12.7%	19.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	36.6%	12.4%	42.3%	12.7%	19.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	19%	76.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	74.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	77.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Oklahoma City high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗